Great - “Human discretion will become a luxury good”; “ai will become a prophet” both great takes. You already hear of people saying “ah but chatgpt says this…”
I don't know if anything was wrong as much as the overview from HW to Biden to Trump reads like it came from the current administration. That's fine I guess, just didn't work for me. Distracted me from the core of the piece.
The world is the greatest bounty it has ever been and for the first time in modern history population will decline, leaving more of a share to any single person
These are interesting thoughts on a possible future. I particularly appreciate that you have avoided Dwarkesh's mistake of thinking that land will be irrelevant, although you have not taken that train of thought to its logical conclusion that land value taxes, and perhaps even a progressive consumption tax, are likely to be very important.
I feel, however, that you have not followed much of this to its logical conclusions. You appear to be assuming that we automated almost all white collar jobs, and that we delegate almost all meaningful decisions to AI. Both assumptions are indeed the most likely outcome in my view as well.
But you appear not to think that these will things will necessarily give rise to substantial economic and social disruption.
Equally, you appear not to think that if those assumptions are true there is a high likelihood that we have AGI if not ASI, and that humans have implicitly if not explicitly delegated not only moral authority but actual power to AIs. This case also seems to give rise to a substantial change in political, economic, and social power, and relations, at every level.
I would be interested in your reasons for not thinking that these things apply!
Great - “Human discretion will become a luxury good”; “ai will become a prophet” both great takes. You already hear of people saying “ah but chatgpt says this…”
You almost lost me with the intro. That said, fascinating insights and predictions. The piece about judgement resonates hard. Seeing that already.
What was wrong with the intro?
I don't know if anything was wrong as much as the overview from HW to Biden to Trump reads like it came from the current administration. That's fine I guess, just didn't work for me. Distracted me from the core of the piece.
I'm a fan, so I could push through :)
Sure felt to pack a heft of clean summary pOwEr to me!
"Your children will inherit the earth relatively more than any prior generation." - What do you mean by this sentence?
The world is the greatest bounty it has ever been and for the first time in modern history population will decline, leaving more of a share to any single person
These are interesting thoughts on a possible future. I particularly appreciate that you have avoided Dwarkesh's mistake of thinking that land will be irrelevant, although you have not taken that train of thought to its logical conclusion that land value taxes, and perhaps even a progressive consumption tax, are likely to be very important.
I feel, however, that you have not followed much of this to its logical conclusions. You appear to be assuming that we automated almost all white collar jobs, and that we delegate almost all meaningful decisions to AI. Both assumptions are indeed the most likely outcome in my view as well.
But you appear not to think that these will things will necessarily give rise to substantial economic and social disruption.
Equally, you appear not to think that if those assumptions are true there is a high likelihood that we have AGI if not ASI, and that humans have implicitly if not explicitly delegated not only moral authority but actual power to AIs. This case also seems to give rise to a substantial change in political, economic, and social power, and relations, at every level.
I would be interested in your reasons for not thinking that these things apply!